Review of the Plenitude
7Z7 2016-02-05
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Not far into the book, I started admiring Gold Rich without knowing much of the purpose of the book. He seemed like someone I would aspire to be like, someone with the knowledge and wisdom to objectively dissect our society and himself. Then I got a little depressed at the end of book; it evoked the dilemmas and confusions I had for a long time. It’s a shame that he passed away. I can’t find much information about him online. I would love to speak to him and ask him about his life story, and how he dealt with these dilemmas with his practice.
I grew up in China during its rapid economic growth and capitalization. I remember the days without much plenitude. If communist propaganda takes significant effort and perseverance to be effective, capitalism does so effortlessly. I remember how jealous I was when I watched western movies as a little girl, fancying the abundance of foods, toys, and books in these middle class families. I also heard that American kids were much more “hands-on” and creative than Chinese kids, and hoped that one day I could be as creative as them.
They say be careful of what you wish for. I didn't expect everything to come so fast. Having experienced shortage of goods, middle class Chinese nowadays are proudly embracing their plenitude, quite like their American peers. Young people shop as if there is no tomorrow. Plenitude seems unstoppable. The “guns over butter” Soviet Union has long lost to it. Given the current growth rates, a lot of other developing countries will soon have it. Even the second law of thermodynamics and Moore's law seem to support it.
Will plenitude destroy human beings? The author thinks so, due to the obvious environmental and societal impacts we are all aware of. There's even a hypothesis in astronomy that the reason that we haven't found extraterrestrial intelligence is because all civilizations die off at their infant level due to the same reasons.
I have a slight disagreement with the author's fatalism. I don't think anyone can predict the future. Even if they can predict what's going to happen, they can never predict when. The nuclear war threat from a couple of decades ago is a good example. Before it happens, our technology, and even our society, may evolve drastically. Who knows if we will be able to collect atomic power safely, let singularity solve problems for us, or alter our "greed" genes?
It is easy to be optimistic and ignorant, denying global warming for instance. It is also easy to be pessimistic and just enjoy the day. What is difficult is to be educated and optimistic. I strongly believe that our choice on what we believe will influence the outcome. As shown in many survival stories, the ones who give up hope are the first to die. Maybe we need more believing and less predicting. Maybe that way we will take more positive actions.