对于思考的思考
2015-05-09
这本书很短。
书中所说的 integrative thinking，指的是这样一种能力：Not accepting either-or, nor trading off, being able to hold two opposite ideas or factors in mind and come out with a constructive plan. 简化与特殊化(simplification & specialization) 这两种普遍的思维方式会阻止integrative thinking, 虽然长久一段时间以来对人类社会的演进起到了很重要的作用.
Integrative thinking 不是成功的必要条件，但是是受访者的（作者是在采访了诸多成名人士之后，写的这本书）一大共性，受访者有的外向, 有的内向, 各种特点都有, 却都有 integrative thinking 的这个共性。
作者给出了人们的决策框架，由四部分构成。
salient, causality, architecture, resolution
它们分别对应着：
what factors do I see as important?
how do I make sense of theses factors?
what task will I do in what order?
how do I know when I’m done?
And thinking differently started with going beyond conventional notions of what was salient. 但是, more salient features make for a messier problem.
Conventional thinkers tend to take a narrow and simplistic view of causality. The simplest of all is a straight-line causal relationship between dependent and independent variables. 公司的环境是鼓励简化的因果关系的：most managers prefer simple unidirectional causal relationships, your boss tells you to stick to your job which involves taking a causal relationship rich with potential complexity and flattening it into a linear relationship in which more of A produces more of B.
因果关系的错误, 通常有
1）把不相关的两个salient联系起来；
2）关系的强度搞错；
3）因果错位
with respect to architecture, the most common failing of conventional thinking is the tendency to lose sight of the whole decision. 部门分工或人头分责的方式可以将每个独立的局部做好，但是会缺失the whole picture。分责的几个人，很难reach to脑中有whole picture的人所作出的决定。
Integrative thinking produces possibilities, solutions, and new ideas. It creates a sense of limitless possibility. Conventional thinking hides potential solutions in places they can’t be found and fosters the illusion that no creative solution is possible.
Conventional thinking is a self-reinforcing lesson that life is about accepting unattractive and unpleasant trade-offs. It erodes aspiration.
reality vs model of reality, many people = many models of reality
When opposites decisions collide we tend to first determine which one represents reality and which one is wrong. But the thing is, everyone has their own flavor of model of reality. No one is ever right.
We miss out on all the value that can be realized by holding in mind two opposing models at the same time. Unlike the rest of us, they don’t need to take sides. “They’re all wrong. See what you can do to combine those multiple perspectives and enhance the quality of your mental model.”
He treated the opposing models as hypotheses rather than the truth, which gave him the intellectual and emotional latitude to weigh the merits and drawbacks of both models without needing to defend one and declare the other false.
An unpleasant trade-off signaled to each of them that the current answers simply weren’t good enough, even if they appeared to be the only ones available. If an existing model didn’t meet their standards, the model would have to change, because the standards wouldn’t.
“Everybody can do ‘or;’ everybody can do great trade-offs. But you’re not going to win if you’re in a trade-off game.”
80-20 原理正好说明了，我们用简化拿到了80的outcome，为了不被剩下的20所带来的complexity搞糊涂。久而久之，人们更加喜欢简化问题，以至于忘了事实要复杂得多得多，本质上是由multidirectional causal relationship构成的。简化的力量发挥到极致的结果就是，从一个观点出发的解决办法，会战胜其他解决办法，从而只解决一个问题，其他问题随着时间推移，会渐渐被忘记，然而持续存在，日后变本加厉得惩罚第一个胜出的解决办法。到时，多数人能做的就是打地鼠，那个问题更显住，就追着打哪个问题。
另外一种模式，是让不同的人处理不同的问题， e.g. 一些人设计，另一些生产。但其实这并不结局根本问题。时间上的后者，只能遵照前者的结果，do the best they can。而integrative thinking指的是，一个人，将所有问题，放在脑子里，一同解决。That’s more complexity than most minds care to handle, and simplification and specialization can quickly come to look like the only refuge from chaos.
不过chaos和complexity是有区别的。complexity有结构，有模式，只是变面上看起来，与完全无序的chaos很像。
Don’t worry about criticism, because you’re not any good, so criticism is always valid.
That’s what’s behind the curtain—no one else is any good.”
Integrative Thinker’s pattern
This is an inherently optimistic stance. Integrative thinkers understand that the world imposes constraints on them, but they share the belief that with hard thinking and patience, they can find a better outcome than the unsatisfying ones they’re presented with.
First, they believe that whatever models exist at the present moment do not represent reality; they are simply the best or only constructions yet made. Second, they believe that conflicting models, styles, and approaches to problems are to be leveraged, not feared. Third, they believe that better models exist that are not yet seen. Fourth, they believe that not only does a better model exist, but that they are capable of bringing that better model from abstract hypothesis to concrete reality. Fifth, they are comfortable wading into complexity to ferret out a new and better model, confident they will emerge on the other side with the resolution they seek. And sixth, they give themselves the time to create a better model.
“Patience is a virtue, seldom found in women—never found in men!” 哈！
How integrative thinkers connect the dots
－－－Generative Reasoning－－－
一般人在学校多年练习的是一种declarative reasoning：reasoning—the ability to declare a proposition to be true or false. 我们学习推理 deduction 和概括 induction，但是 declarative reasoning 并不是唯一的逻辑思维方式。Modal reasoning, uses logic to inquire into what could possibly be true. Integrative thinkers reason about what might be—about models that don’t yet exist—to generate a creative resolution.
他们使用推理和概括，但是还包括第三者：dubbed abductive logic by Charles Sanders Peirce.
To Peirce, neither deductive nor inductive logic satisfactorily explained how entirely new models came into being. Deductive logic needed a preexisting theory or model on which to base its reasoning. Inductive logic sought to draw inferences from repeated experiences or observations. But invention, Peirce saw, required a logic for making “leaps with your mind.” 这种思维上的跳跃，要求 integrative thinkers 可以正视推理或概括所不能解释的data或现象，以形成一种新的model。
练习generative reasoning的办法，就是先获得non-conforming data, 以求新的insights, then work towards a new model.
－－－Causal Modeling－－－
material causality + teleology causality = causality modeling
前者是物质世界的因为所以，后者是主观世界的目的性解释。
generative reasoning + causal modeling = radial metaphor, which helps integrative thinkers keep the whole picture in mind.
－－－Assertive Inquiry－－－
Integrative thinkers use it to explore opposing models, and in particular, models that oppose their own.
When we interact with other people on the basis of a particular mental model, we usually try to defend that model against any challenges.
Our energy goes into explaining our model to others and defending it from criticism.
Assertive inquiry involves a sincere search for another’s views 并不是为了赢取争论，也不是为了证明他人的错误观点，更多的是为了寻求共通点。
它是一种谈话的技巧，帮助integrative thinker获得更多的salient data
其实就是twinning advocacy with inquiry
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