這是一部投資界的武林秘籍，然而秘籍內容卻簡單得不能再簡單——不作就不會死。
如果你能活到80歲，有一本書告訴你，如何才能順利活到80歲，你會感興趣嗎？我想大多數人會更期待看到一本書講訴如何延年益壽，再多活幾年吧。然而這是一本講真話的書，不會給你一些虛無縹緲的養生秘籍，騙你可以活到100歲。講真話也許很無趣，但並不等於沒用。正所謂，不作就不會死。也許你只能活到80歲，但壽終正寢也總比英年早逝要好得多吧。最佳建議往往並無複雜，就好像最佳的養生之道是戒煙，最佳的衛生習慣是洗手，最佳的安全出行建議是繫安全帶。遵從建議雖並不難，難的是能否堅守一輩子。
在投資領域，第一要務就是不要貪心，然後才是想辦法把屬於自己的那份賺過來。Success is getting what you want, but happiness is wanting what you get.
什麼是輸家的遊戲？什麼是贏家的遊戲？
In a winner’s game, the outcome is determined by the correct actions of the winner. In a loser’s game, the outcome is determined by mistakes made by the loser.
職業選手的對決是贏家遊戲，業餘選手的比拼則是輸家遊戲。與其想著如何一擊致命，不如做好持久戰的準備。
如何打敗大盤？
An investor missed just the 10 best days over the past 109 years he or she would miss two-thirds of the total gains, that’s 10 days out of 39,812 days.
股票市場上賺錢的良機轉瞬即逝，同樣賠錢的夢魘也不會持久。普通投資者首先要認清自己，不要夢想能把握住絕佳良機，也不要因陷入夢魘而絕望，因為這些都不是市場的常態，頻繁試圖探尋機會反而會被短期市場波動攪得神魂顛倒，而穩健的長期投資則可幫助投資者賺取高於存款、國債和通脹的長期投資回報率。
About 10 percent of those boys are honest to God soldiers! The rest... are just... targets! -- Full Metal Jacket.
75 percent of all the trades on the NYSE are made by the 100 largest and most active institutional investors.
任何一個領域，都是少數精英的競技場，業餘選手即便再有天分，也別指望能打敗業內牛人。作為普通投資者，不要期待能夠獲得超過大盤的收益率，沒有人能，即便是少數精英可能在幾年內保持絕佳戰績，但從長期數據來看，沒有人的平均成績能永遠打敗市場。
普通投資者應該怎麼做？
1. Determine a long-term mix of assets: how much in stocks, real estate, bonds, or cash.
2. Determine the real purpose of investment: growth, income, safety, according to when the money will be used.
3. Diversify within each asset class and between asset classes. Bad things do happen, usually as surprises.
4. Plan your play and play your plan.
投資風險
外部投資風險往往都可以通過多元化與長期化分散，而內部風險才是投資者的最大敵人。也就是說，投資者最大的敵人就是自己，認清自己、戰勝自己才能投資成功。那麼，我們到底要關注哪些自身缺陷呢？
Ignore the “base rate”. Even though we know the odds are against us, we gamble at casinos and get caught up in bull and bear market.
Believe in “hot hands”. Believe that recent events mater, even in flipping coins.
“Confirmation-biased”, looking for and overweighting the significance of data that support our own initial impressions.
We think we are “above average” than we really are.
投資原則
每個人的需求、目標、資金實力都不同，投資原則也各不相同。
Old Wall Street question: “What’s the fastest way to make a small fortune? Answer: “Start with a large fortune and try to copy the experts.”
制定個人投資原則，需考慮以下4個問題：
What are the real risks to you of an adverse outcome, particularly in the short run? Unacceptable risks should never be taken.
What are your probable emotional reactions to an adverse experience? Avoiding market risk does have a real “opportunity cost”.
How knowledgeable are you about the history and the realities of investing and the realities and vagaries of financial markets? Understand how it feels to be in a storm, and it helps learn how to remain calm in the next one. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
What other capital or income resources do you have, and how important is your portfolio to your overall financial position?
長期投資的重要性
If a typical stock’s share price is $40, the range of trading during the day might easily be from $39.25 to $40.50, a range of $1.25, or 3.1 percent of the average price for the day.
Let’s postulate that an investment in this hypothetical stock would have an expected daily return of 0.04 percent (10 percent annual return divided by 250 trading days each year) and a range around that expected average of plus or minus 1.55 percent (the 3.1 percent intraday range divided by 2).
The average annual expected rate of return would still be 10 percent, but the range of returns around the 10 percent would be a daunting ±387.5 percent!
In other words, the annualized rate of return for a one-day investment in our hypothetical stock would be somewhere between a profit of 405.5 percent and a loss of 372.5 percent.
由此可見，短期投機放大了收益區間，把本可以穩賺的10%長期收益率擴展為最多收益405.5%、最多損失372.5%的正態分佈區間。
投資是科學還是藝術？
Portfolio management is investment engineering. An efficient portfolio has greater expected returns than any other feasible portfolio has greater expected returns than any other feasible portfolio with equal risk, and less risk than any other feasible portfolio with equal expected returns.
衡量投資質量的標準是相同風險下收益最高，或者相同收益下風險最低。顯然，長期投資要優於短期投機。
預判市場走向
Investment returns come from 1) quite predictable cash received from interest or dividends and 2) quite unpredictable, in the short run, gains or losses in market price.
前者是基礎收益，可以通過企業利潤預測，後者是投機收益，可以通過長期利率判斷，長期利率受預期通脹影響，再加上”equity premium” that reflects the uncertainty of investing in stocks, plus or minus a “speculative” factor reflecting how optimistic or pessimistic investors currently feel.
為什麼長期投資要投資股市？
對抗通脹。At 3 percent inflation, which most people accept as “normal”, the purchasing power of your money is cut in half in 24 years. At 5 percent inflation, the purchasing power of your money is cut in half in less than 15 years, and cut in half again in the next 15 years to just one-quarter.
Any funds that will stay invested for 10 years or longer should be in stocks. Any funds that will be invested for less than two to three years should be in “cash” or money market instruments.
儘管如此，If you don’t know who you are, the stock market is an expensive place to find out. So are the markets for real estate, commodities, and options.
房地產不適合長期投資。Over the 30 years to year-end 2007, before the nationwide decline, the value of an average home rose at 5.5 percent a year. Of this, 4.1 percent was just inflation. Cost, including taxes, insurance, and routine maintenance, were 3 percent.
黃金等商品期貨不適合長期投資。Dealing in commodities is really only price speculation. It’s not investing because there’s no economic productivity or value added.
退休之後的資金安排
In retirement, be conservative, better safe than sorry. Limit annual withdrawals to 4 percent of a three-year moving average of your portfolio.
應該給孩子留多少錢？
Warren Buffett says that the perfect amount to leave children is “enough money so they would feel they could do anything, but not so much that they could do nothing.”（完）
梓香齋
2014年2月23日